E3 2021 Predict-a-Ton Results!

The wonderful time of year known as E3 has finally come to a close. This year was a peculiar one, with all events taking place virtually. There was no show floor and off-screen footage; no live interviews; no wondrous Nintendo-themed landscape cultivated on the cold carpet of a vast convention center. For some companies this was a bit of a departure, though the show has gone more in the direction of being ‘pre-prepared’ more and more in recent years. Nintendo was pretty comfortable with their presentation. They had a thirty-nine-or-so minute presentation at their usual time slot. Afterwards were many hours of live Nintendo Treehouse coverage of games. The only difference was that hosts sat farther apart. Otherwise, you never would have known they were taking pandemic-related precautions. There was even the usual slew of information that you wonder why it wasn’t noted in the Direct itself as it would have made the initial presentation of a title a lot more interesting.

In my excitement for E3 2021 I setup a Predict-a-ton for the event. With a format generated from my buddy who goes by the name InfinityWave, I setup four categories of ten potential events that could happen at the show. Would a Smash Bros. DLC fighter be showcased? Would they go live that week? Will we see a Donkey Kong game surface? What about that Switch Pro? In categories of Expected, Rumored, High Risk, and Megaton, each section became progressively more and more riskier as the likelihood of the event taking place became lesser and lesser. Any category chosen nets you positive or negative points if you select it, so the risk is always there with each decision. By default, NegativeWorld.org is always where the event takes place but in past years I’ve expanded it to my Discord friends, my Twitter followers, and even my own family. I enjoy sharing this with multiple groups because I have the secret joy of watching all the different responses come in, seeing how varied they are, and then finding out who was the most accurate.

Now it is time to share those results! It would be monstrous and somewhat pointless to share everyone’s responses individually, so I won’t be doing that, but below you’ll find a summary of everyone’s scores as well as some random data I pulled from all this; just some minor things I thought were interesting to point out. To help set the scene, over four different recruiting methods, I managed to gather 48 different individuals eager to play. There were more entries than this but a slew of them were anonymous and well, there’s no point in reporting those since I A.) can’t share that information with the individual and B.) can’t be sure that people aren’t doubling up responses. In fact, one anonymous individual had the exact same long description detailing their decision to be anonymous, down to the emoji. Not every entry of theirs was the same, so how could I know what was their intent. It just appeared spammy. Then one of the last entries of the set was from someone who went by the name, “WHAT THE HELL IS E3” and then their Optional Bonus Game pick was “F*** YOU”. Isn’t the internet just a bundle of mystery? Let’s continue on to the genuine participants and see how everything shook out.


First, here’s how the breakdown worked out for all the different methods people participated.

  1. NegativeWorld.org (31%)
  2. Discord Servers (17%)
  3. Twitter Users (50%)
  4. My Cousin, Adam (2%)

Here’s how everyone did with their scores. Remember that your score has a plus or minus range depending on how much you voted. As a strategy some folks don’t pick a lot of guesses, as you can’t lose a ton of points, but you also can’t gain a lot either. It’s an interesting concept for a setup and I once again thank InfinityWave for his contribution to the formula.

User Name / ParticipantScoreSource
@jumpoe2140Twitter
Rocket36Discord
GracefulGazelleGaming (@GGazelleGaming)32Twitter
@Kanazes28Twitter
@Mathman102428Twitter
TriforceBun26Negative World
SpoonyTech20Discord
@Nosey_Tengu10Twitter
PokeLink64 (@SquidLink64)2Twitter
Ziodyne44#50940Discord
Secret Tunnel0Negative World
@JoshJayOnline-2Twitter
@TOPolk-2Twitter
@elephante88-6Twitter
Brick-8Negative World
V_s-8Negative World
JK_Riki-10Discord
@LoneBengalFan-16Twitter
@Gaz5021_-18Twitter
Adam-18Facebook
Ninsage (@Nintemple)-20Twitter
@Super_Conzo-22Twitter
Pureval-24Discord
@The9thSage-26Twitter
Smerd-26Negative World
@Johnny2900-28Twitter
Mop it up-28Negative World
TheBigG753-28Negative World
@ihatemyoldname-30Twitter
@VofEscaflowne-32Twitter
Pokefreak911-32Negative World
Ploot-36Negative World
DrFinkelstein-40Negative World
@Parximew-46Twitter
@Shaderwave-48Twitter
@MarshmaLink-50Twitter
@JerBer1218-58Twitter
Zero-60Negative World
ShadowLink-62Negative World
RonJoeO-68Discord
Kevin Omega-68Discord
@Sunny_Sof-74Twitter
@FusionB0lt-74Twitter
@t_wrecks_64-82Twitter
Anand-84Negative World
InfinityWave-100Negative World
Fused Creeper-124Discord
LegendofAlex-152Negative World

So there it is. The big list. Are you satisfied with your placement? When I look at a low score, I don’t think of it as a bad thing. I think of it as someone who was a wishful thinker and hoped for the best! Plus I appreciate the tenacity of anyone who put down that many options. As you can see, of the 48 total entries, 11 of them were not negative. Two were exactly zero, and nine were positive. This spread is pretty typical of what past years have looked like. Getting a positive score in this game is not common. In fact, this year, the optional bonus game franchise picks worth 50 points really helped sway some results for folks. We had two franchises get named, which is a bit unprecedented. I didn’t risk such a thing and I had a glorious -40 score myself, four points worse than the person who won it all last time, Ploot. Now, in classic GoldenEye or Perfect Dark fashion, here’s some random awards.


The ‘Pre-Order Bonus’ Award:

This award is for the category which was picked the most and also came true.

Winners:

(A) A New Smash Bros. DLC Fighter is Revealed

(B) Super Mario Party Sequel Announced

(C) N/A. No C-options came true.

(D) Major previously Xbox or PS exclusive game hits the Switch

Amazingly enough, more people were convinced a Smash reveal was happening than they were convinced Mother 3 was not going to appear at E3.


The ‘Captain Blubber’ Award:

This award is for the category which was picked the most but it didn’t come true, thus causing the most upset.

Winner: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 2 finally detailed

Most people, 70% of participants, expected that the sequel to The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild would see significant details. Instead, we saw another teaser trailer. Other similar upsets from other categories were the lack of a Kirby, Bayonetta, and Mario Kart 9 presence.


The ‘7th Generation Booster’ Award:

This award is for the category which was picked the least, and thus signifies what people thought was the craziest option to go with.

Winner: Metroid Prime 4 Releases This Year (0 votes)

That’s right, amongst all 48 participants this was the single category which nobody thought was going to happen at E3 2021. They were correct. We only received a quick mention that the game was progressing smoothly before they unveiled Metroid Dread.


TheFence SwingerAward:

This award is for the contestant who had the widest possible point spread, and it paid off.

Winner: SpoonyTech (+/- 128 possible points)

Runners up in this category would be @PokeLink64 (+/- 126 points) and TriforceBun (+/- 102 points)


The ‘Brawl Tripper’ Award:

This award is for the contestant who had the widest possible point spread, but it did not work out.

Winner: Anand from NegativeWorld.org (+/- 224 possible points)

Runners up in this category would be LegendOfAlex (+/- 168 points) and Fused Creeper (+/- 160 points).


The ‘Link’s Crossbow Training’ Award:

This award is for the contestant who had the best accuracy in their voting choices. They had the most correct answers regardless of point values won or lost.

Winner: @TOPolk (89.1% accuracy)

Seven additional of the 48 contestants managed 85% or higher. From Negative World it was Brick, V_s, and Secret_Tunnel. While from other sources there was @GGazelleGaming, @FusionB0lt, @jumpoe21, and Rocket.


TheSwitzerland’ Award:

This award is for the contestants who managed to net a neutral score of 0 points.

Winners: Ziodyne44#5094 and Secret_Tunnel

They made eight and five picks respectively.


The ‘Metroid Dread’ Award:

This award is for the franchise that people most voted for in the optional bonus but it didn’t show up; thus a missing in action title.

Winner: Pikmin (with 4 votes; 19% of all optional game votes)

Wario had received 8 votes (38%) and luckily WarioWare also counted for that one as it helped people. Though not everyone who picked Wario received a positive score.


Well, that about sums up everything I think I wanted to accomplish with this game. I do hope you had fun considering the choices. I had a lot of fun writing them up and putting this all together. If you’re reading this, then thank you. If you’re reading this and you participated, then thank you doubly so! This kind of game wouldn’t be possible without individuals like yourself taking the time to fill the survey out. So much of the fun that surrounds E3 for me is the hype and speculation of it. Games like this can help bring folks together in that endeavor. Regardless of how pleased you were at the showcase, or your own score here, I do hope you’re going to have fun playing games real soon. There is certainly something for everyone to enjoy and I hope you’re able to find and play games that bring you joy. So with that I’ll say one last thing…

CONGRATULATIONS TO @jumpoe21

for winning the E3 2021 Predict-a-ton!!!

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